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           ANCIENT HISTORY
  The first programmable computers were invented in the 1940's.
Before then, people were stuck with the abacus, adding machine,
and slide rule.
  During the 1950's, 1960's, and 1970's, most computers used
punched cards ___ whose history is weird. The cards were first
used for weaving tapestries. Where the cards had holes, rods
could move through the cards; those moving rods in turn made
other rods move, which caused the threads to weave pictures. That
machine was called the Jacquard loom.

           Charles Babbage
  Charles Babbage was a wild-eyed English mathematician who, in
the 1800's, believed he could build a fancy computing machine. He
convinced the British government to give him lots of money, then
bilked the government for more. Many years later ___ and many
British pounds later ___ he still hadn't finished his machine. So
he dropped the idea and ___ can you believe this? ___ tried to
build an even fancier machine. He didn't finish that one either.
You might say his life was a failure that was expensive for the
British government.
  But Charlie (as I'll call him) is admired by all us
computerniks (in spite of his face, which was even sterner than
Beethoven's), because he was the first person to realize that a
computing machine must be composed of an input device (he used a
card reader), a memory (which he called ``The Store''), a central
processing unit (which he called ``The Mill''), and an output
device (he used a printer).

            Lady Lovelace
  Feminists will kill me if I don't mention Charlie's side-kick,
Lady Lovelace. (No, she's not related to Linda.) She was one of
Charlie's great admirers, but he never noticed her until she
translated his stuff. And boy, it was impossible for him not to
notice her translations. Her ``footnotes'' to the translation
were three times as long as what she was translating!
  She got very intense. She wrote to Charlie, ``I am working very
hard for you ___ like the Devil in fact (which perhaps I am).''
  The two became love-birds, although he was old enough to be her
father. (By the way, her father was Lord Byron, the poet. She was
Lord Byron's only ``official'' daughter. His other daughters were
illegitimate.) Some people argue that she was actually brighter
than Charlie, despite Charlie's fame. She was better at
explaining Charlie's machines and their implications than Charlie
was. Some people have dubbed her, ``the world's first
programmer''.
  Stunning She stunned all the men she met. She was so bright and
. . . a woman! Here's how the editor of The Examiner described
her (note the pre-Women's-Lib language!):
``She was thoroughly original. Her genius, for genius she
possessed, was not poetic, but metaphysical and mathematical.
With an understanding thoroughly masculine in solidity, grasp,
and firmness, Lady Lovelace had all the delicacies of the most
refined female character. Her manners, tastes, and
accomplishments were feminine in the nicest sense of the word;
and the superficial observer would never have divined the
strength and knowledge
that lay hidden under the womanly graces. Proportionate to her
distaste for the frivolous and commonplace was her enjoyment of
true intellectual society. Eagerly she sought the acquaintance of
all who were distinguished in science, art, and literature.''
                                         Mad Eventually, she went
mad. Mattresses lined her room to prevent her from banging her
head. Nevertheless, she died gruesomely, at the ripe young age of
36, the same age that her father croaked. (I guess premature
death was popular in her Devilish family.)
                                         Who's the heroine? I
wish feminists would pick a different heroine than Lady Lovelace.
She was not the most important woman in the history of computing.
                                         Far more important were
Grace Hopper and Jean Sammet. In the 1950's Grace Hopper invented
the first programming languages, and she inspired many of us
programmers until her recent death. Jean Sammet headed the main
committee that invented COBOL; she's the world's top expert on
the history of programming languages, and she's been president of
the computer industry's main professional society, the ACM.
                                         Lady Lovelace was
second-string to Babbage. Grace Hopper and Jean Sammet were
second-string to nobody.
                                         But since Hopper and
Sammet led less racy lives, journalists ignore them; and since
Hopper was an Admiral in the Navy (bet you didn't know the Navy
had lady Admirals!), she irked some of us doves. Nevertheless,
whenever she stepped in front of an audience she got a standing
ovation because all of us realize how crucial she was to the
computer industry.
                                         But I'm straying from my
story. . . .

                                                 Herman Hollerith
                                         The U.S. Bureau of the
Census takes its census every ten years. To tabulate the results
of the 1880 census, the Bureau took 7 years: they didn't finish
until 1887. When they contemplated the upcoming 1890 census, they
got scared; at the rate America was growing, they figured that
tallying the 1890 census would take 12 years. In other words, the
results of the 1890 census wouldn't be ready until 1902. So they
held a contest to see whether anyone could invent a faster way to
tabulate the data.
                                         The winner was Herman
Hollerith. He was the first person to successfully use punched
cards to process data.
                                         Hermie (as I'll call
him) was modest. When people asked him how he got the idea of
using punched cards, he had two answers. One was, ``Trains'': he
had watched a train's conductor punch the tickets. His other,
more interesting answer was, ``Chicken salad''. After saying
``Chicken salad'', he'd pause for you to ask the obvious
question, ``Why chicken salad?'' Then he'd tell his tale. . . .
                                         One day, a girl saw him
gulping down chicken salad. She said, ``Oh, you like chicken
salad? Come to my house. My mother makes excellent chicken
salad.'' So he did. And her father was a head of the Census. (And
he married the girl.)
                                         By the way, Herman
Hollerith hated one thing: spelling. In elementary school, he
jumped out a second-story window, to avoid a spelling test.
  In some versions of FORTRAN, every string must be preceded by
the letter H. For example, instead of saying ___
'DOG'
you must say:
3HDOG
The H is to honor Herman Hollerith.
  Anyway, getting back to the story, in 1890 the Census used
Hollerith's system, and used it again in 1900.
  In 1910, the Census switched to a fancier system created by a
Census Bureau employee, James Powers. Later, Powers quit his job
and started his own company, which merged into
Remington-Rand-Sperry-Univac. Meanwhile, Herman Hollerith's own
company merged into IBM. That's how the first two computer
companies began doing data processing.

            World War II
  The first programmable computers were invented in the 1940's
because of World War II. They could have been invented sooner ___
most of the know-how was available several decades earlier ___
but you can't invent a computer unless you have big bucks for
research. And the only organization that had big enough bucks was
the Defense Department (which in those days was more honestly
called the ``War Department'').  And the only event that was big
enough to make the War Department spend that kind of money was
World War II.
  Of course, the Germans did the same thing. A German fellow,
Konrad Zuse, built computers which in some ways surpassed the
American ones. But since the Germans lost the war, you don't hear
much about old Konrad anymore. Fortunately, throughout World War
II the German military ignored what he was doing.
  During the 1940's, most computers were invented at
universities, usually funded by the War-Defense Department. Some
of the most famous computers were the Mark I (at Harvard with
help from IBM), the ENIAC and the EDVAC (both at the University
of Pennsylvania), the Whirlwind (at the Massachusetts Institute
of Technology, M.I.T.), and the Ferranti Mark I (at the
University of Manchester, in England). Which of those computers
deserves to be called ``the first programmable computer''? The
answer's up for grabs. Each of those machines had its own
peculiar hang-ups and required years of debugging before working
well.
  Each of those computers was, as they say in the art world, a
``signed original''. No two of those computers were alike.

  The first generation (1951-1958)
  The first computer to be mass-produced was the UNIVAC I, in
1951. It was made by the same two guys (Eckert & Mauchly) who'd
built the ENIAC and EDVAC at the University of Pennsylvania.
(Mauchly was an instructor there, and Eckert was the graduate
student who did the dirty work.) While others at the school were
helping build the EDVAC, Eckert and Mauchly left and formed their
own company, which invented and started building the UNIVAC.
While building the UNIVAC, the Eckert-Mauchly company merged into
Remington Rand (which later merged into Sperry-Rand, which later
merged into Unisys).
  The UNIVAC I was so important that historians call it the
beginning of the ``first generation''. As for computers before
UNIVAC ___ historians disparagingly call them the ``zeroth
generation''.
                                         So the first generation
began in 1951. It lasted through 1958. Altogether, from 1951 to
1958, 46 of those UNIVACs were sold.
                                         46 might not sound like
many. But remember: in those days, computers were very expensive,
and could do very little. Another reason why only 46 were sold is
that newer models came out, such as the UNIVAC 1103, the UNIVAC
80, and the UNIVAC 90. But the biggest reason why only 46 of the
UNIVAC I were sold is IBM.
                                         The rise of IBM Although
IBM didn't begin mass-marketing computers until 1953 ___ two
years after UNIVAC ___ the IBM guys were much better salesmen,
and soon practically everybody was buying from IBM. During the
first generation, the hottest seller was the IBM 650. IBM sold
hundreds and hundreds of them.
                                         There were many smaller
manufacturers too. People summarized the whole computer industry
in one phrase: IBM and the Seven Dwarfs.
                                         Who were the dwarfs?
They kept changing. Companies rapidly entered the field ___ and
rapidly left when they realized IBM had the upper hand. By the
end of the first generation, IBM was getting 70% of the sales.
                                         Primitive input and
output During the first generation, there were no terminals. To
program the UNIVAC I, you had to put the program onto magnetic
tape (by using a non-computerized machine), feed that tape to the
computer, and wait for the computer to vomit another magnetic
tape, which you had to run through another machine to find out
what the tape said.
                                         One reason why the IBM
650 became more popular was that it could read cards instead of
tapes. It really liked cards. In fact, the answers came out on
cards. To transfer the answers from cards to paper, you had to
run the cards through a separate non-computerized machine.
                                         Memory At the beginning
of the first generation, there was no RAM, no ROM, and no core.
Instead, the UNIVAC's main memory was banks of liquid mercury, in
which the bits were stored as ultrasonic sound waves. It worked
slowly and serially, so the access time ranged from 40 to 400
microseconds per bit.
                                         UNIVAC's manufacturer
and IBM started playing around with a different kind of memory,
called the Williams tube, which was faster (10 to 50
microseconds); but since it was less reliable, it didn't sell
well.
                                         In 1953, several
manufacturers started selling computers that were much cheaper,
because they used super-slow memory: it was a drum that rotated
at 3600 rpm, giving an average access time of 17000 microseconds
(17 milliseconds). (During the 1970's, some computers still used
drums, but for auxiliary memory, not for main memory.) The most
popular first generation computer, the IBM 650, was one of those
cheap drum computers.
                                         Core memory consists of
tiny iron donuts strung on a grid of wires, whose electrical
current magnetizes the donuts. That scheme was first conceived in
1950. The first working models were built in 1953 at M.I.T. and
RCA, which argued with each other about who owned the patent. The
courts decided in favor of M.I.T., so both RCA and IBM came out
with core-memory computers. Core memory proved so popular that
most computers used it through the 1970's, though in the 1980's
RAM finally overshadowed it.
  Languages During the first generation, computer programming
improved a lot. During the early 1950's, all programs had to be
written in machine language. In the middle 1950's, assembly
language became available. By 1958, the end of the first
generation, three major high-level languages had become
available: FORTRAN, ALGOL, and APT.
  Fancy programs Programmers tried to make computers play a
decent game of chess. All the attempts failed. But at IBM, Arthur
Samuel had some luck with checkers. He got his first checkers
program working in 1952 and then continually improved it, to make
it more and more sophisticated. In 1955, he rewrote it so that it
learned from its own mistakes. In 1956, he demonstrated it on
national TV. He kept working on it. Though it hadn't reached
championship level yet, it was starting to look impressive.
  Computer music scored its first big success in 1956, on the
University of Illinois' ILLIAC computer. Hiller & Isaacson made
the ILLIAC compose its own music in a style that sounded
pre-Bach. In 1957, they made the program more flexible, so that
it produced many styles of more modern music. The resulting
mishmash composition was dubbed ``The ILLIAC Suite'' and put on a
phonograph record.
  In 1954, IBM wrote a program that translated simple sentences
from Russian to English. Work on tackling harder sentences
continued ___ with too much optimism.

  The second generation (1959-1963)
  Throughout the first generation, each CPU was composed of
vacuum tubes. Back in 1948, Bell Telephone had invented the
transistor, and everybody realized that transistors would be
better than vacuum tubes; but putting transistors into computers
posed many practical problems that weren't solved for many years.
  Finally, in 1959, computer companies started delivering
transistorized computers. That year marked the beginning of the
second generation. Sales of vacuum-tube computers immediately
stopped.
  All second-generation computers used core memory.
  IBM The first company to make transistors for computers was
Philco, but the most popular second-generation computer turned
out to be the IBM 1401, because it was business-oriented and
cheap. IBM announced it in 1959 and began shipping it to
customers in 1960.
  Its core memory required 11½ microseconds per character. Each
character consisted of 6 bits. The number of characters in the
memory could range from 1.4K up to 16K. Most people rented the
1401 for about $8,000 per month, but you could spend anywhere
from $4,000 to $12,000 per month, depending on how much memory
you wanted, etc.
  Altogether, IBM installed 14,000 of those machines.
  IBM also installed 1,000 of a faster version, called the 1410.
It required only 4½ microseconds per character, had 10K to 80K,
and rented for $8,000 to $18,000 per month, typically $11,000.
  Altogether, IBM produced six kinds of computers. . . .
small business computers:the 1401, 1410, 1440, and 1460
small scientific computers:the 1620

medium-sized business computers:the 7010
medium-sized scientific computers:the 7040 and 7044

large business computers:the 7070, 7074, and 7080
large scientific computers:the 7090 and 7094

                                         CDC Several employees
left Remington-Rand-Sperry-Univac and formed their own company,
called the Control Data Corporation (CDC). During the second
generation, CDC produced popular scientific computers: the 1604,
the 3600, and the 3800.
                                         Software During the
second generation, software improved tremendously.
                                         The three major
programming languages that had been invented during the first
generation (FORTRAN, ALGOL, and APT) were significantly improved.
Six new programming languages were invented: COBOL, RPG, LISP,
SNOBOL, DYNAMO, and GPSS.
                                         Programmers wrote
advanced programs that answered questions about baseball, wrote
poetry, tutored medical students, imitated three-person social
interaction, controlled a mechanical hand, proved theorems in
geometry, and solved indefinite integrals. The three most popular
sorting methods were invented: the Shuffle Sort, the Shell Sort,
and Quicksort.

                                        Dawn of 3rd generation (1964-1967)
                                         The third generation
began with a big bang, in 1964. Here's what happened in 1964,
1965, 1966, and 1967. . . .
                                         Families The first
modern computer families were shipped. They were the CDC 6600,
the IBM 360, and DEC's families (the PDP-6, PDP-8, and PDP-10).
                                         Of those families, the
CDC 6600 ran the fastest. The IBM 360 was the most flexible and
was the only one that used integrated circuits. The PDP-6 and
PDP-10 were the best for timesharing. The PDP-8 was the cheapest.
                                         Here are the dates. CDC
began shipping the CDC 6600 in 1964. IBM announced the IBM 360 in
1964 but didn't ship it until 1966. DEC began shipping the PDP-6
maxicomputer in 1964, the PDP-8 minicomputer in 1965, and the
PDP-10 maxicomputer (a souped-up PDP-6) in 1967.
                                         New languages IBM
announced it would create PL/I, a new computer language combining
FORTRAN, COBOL, ALGOL, and all other popular languages. It was
designed especially for IBM's new computer, the 360. In 1966, IBM
began delivering PL/I to customers.
                                         Programmers invented the
first successful languages for beginners using terminals. Those
languages were BASIC, JOSS, and APL.
                                         Dartmouth College
invented the first version of BASIC in 1964, and significantly
improved it in 1966 and 1967.
                                         The RAND Corporation
invented JOSS in 1964 for the JOHNNIAC computer, and put an
improved version (JOSS II) on the PDP-6 in 1965. During the
1970's, three popular variants of JOSS arose: a souped-up version
(called AID), a stripped-down version (FOCAL), and a
business-oriented version (MUMPS).
                                         IBM completed the first
version of APL in 1965 and put it on an IBM 7090. IBM wrote a
better version of APL in 1966 and put it on an IBM 360. IBM began
shipping APL to customers in 1967.
                                         Stanford University
invented the most popular language for statistics: SPSS.
                                         Artificial intelligence
Researchers calling themselves ``experts in artificial
intelligence'' taught the computer to chat in ordinary English.
For example, Bertram Raphael made the computer learn from
conversations, Daniel Bobrow made it use algebra to solve ``story
problems'', The Systems Development Corporation made it know
everything in an encyclopedia, General Electric made it answer
military
questions, Ross Quillian made it find underlying concepts, and
Joe Weizenbaum made it act as a psychotherapist.
  Also, Richard Greenblatt wrote the first decent chess program.
It was good enough to play in championship tournaments against
humans.

     Era of boredom (1968-1974)
  As you can see, the first, second, and third generations ___ up
through 1967 ___ were exciting, full of action. But then, from
1968 to 1974, nothing newsworthy happened. That was the era of
boredom.
  During that era, progress was made, but it was gradual and
predictable. Nothing dramatic happened.
  Of course, nobody actually came out and said, ``Life is
boring.'' People phrased it more genteelly. For example, in
September 1971 Robert Fenichel and Joe Weizenbaum wrote this
introduction to Scientific American's computer anthology:
``Partly because of the recent recession in the American economy,
but more for reasons internal to the field, computer science has
recently relaxed its pace. Work has not stopped, but that the
current mood is one of consolidation can scarcely be doubted.
Just a few years ago, computer science was moving so swiftly that
even the professional journals were more archival than
informative. This book could not then have been produced without
great risk of misfocus. Today it's much easier to put the
articles that constitute this book ___ even the most recent ones
___ into context.''
  Since the first generation had lasted eight years (1951-1958),
and the second generation had lasted four years (1959-1963),
people were expecting the third generation to last at most four
years (1964-1967) and some kind of ``fourth generation'' to begin
about 1968. But it never happened.
  The only ``major'' announcement around then came in 1970, when
IBM announced it would produce a new line of computers, called
the IBM 370, which would make the IBM 360 obsolete. But to IBM's
dismay, many computer centers decided to hang onto the old 360
instead of switching to the 370. The 370's advantage over the 360
was little, until several years later, when IBM started
developing 370 software that wouldn't run on the 360.
  Since the difference between the 370 and 360 was
disappointingly small, not even IBM claimed that the 370 marked a
fourth generation. Computer historians, desperate for something
positive to say about the 370, called it the beginning of the
``late third generation'', as opposed to the 360, which belonged
to the ``early third generation''.
  The cruel fact is, in the entire history of computers, there
was just one year all computer manufacturers acted together to
produce something new. That year was 1959, when all manufacturers
switched from vacuum tubes to transistors. Since 1959, we haven't
had any consistency. For example, although the third generation
began with a ``big bang'' in 1964, each manufacturer was banging
on a different drum. IBM was proclaiming how great the IBM 360
would be because it would contain integrated circuits; but other
manufacturers decided to ignore integrated circuits for several
years, and concentrated on improving other aspects of the
computer instead. For many years after the beginning of the third
generation, CDC and DEC continued to use discrete transistors (a
sign of the second generation) instead of integrated circuits.
  Why? The era of boredom happened for three reasons:
  1. The preceding years, 1964-1967, had been so successful that
they were hard to improve on.
                                         2. When the Vietnam War
ended, the American economy had a recession, especially the
computer industry, because it had depended on contracts from the
Defense Department. In 1969, the recession hit bottom, and
computer companies had to lay off many workers. In that year,
General Electric gave up and sold its computer division to
Honeywell. In 1971, RCA gave up too and sold its computer
division to Remington-Rand-Sperry-Univac.
                                         3. The world wasn't
ready yet for ``the era of personal computing'', which began in
1975.
                                         Quiet changes During the
era of boredom, these changes occurred ___ quietly. . . .
                                         In 1970, DEC began
shipping the PDP-11. The PDP-8 and PDP-11 became the most popular
minicomputers ___ far more popular than IBM's minicomputers. So
in the field of minicomputers, IBM no longer had the upper hand.
                                         BASIC became the most
popular language for the PDP-8 and PDP-11 and most other
minicomputers (except IBM's, which emphasized RPG). In high
schools and business schools, most of the introductory courses
used BASIC, instead of FORTRAN or COBOL.
                                         Many businesses and high
schools bought their own minicomputers, instead of renting time
on neighbors' maxicomputers. The typical high-school computer
class used a PDP-8. The richest high schools bought PDP-11's.
                                         In universities, the
social sciences started using computers ___ and heavily ___ to
analyze statistics.
                                         All new computer
families used 8-bit bytes, so the length of each word was a
multiple of 8 (such as 8, 16, 32, or 64). Most older computer
families, invented before the era of boredom, had used 6-bit
bytes, so the length of each word had been a multiple of 6: for
example, the PDP-8 had a word of 12 bits; the PDP-10 , UNIVAC
1100, and General Electric-Honeywell computers had a word of 36
bits; and the CDC 6600 had a word of 60 bits. The IBM 360 was the
first computer to use 8-bit bytes instead of 6-bit; during the
era of boredom, all manufacturers copied that feature from IBM.
                                         CRT terminals (TV-like
screens attached to keyboards) got cheaper and cheaper, until
they were finally as cheap as hard-copy terminals (which use
paper). Most computer centers replaced hard-copy terminals by CRT
terminals because CRT terminals were quicker, quieter, and could
do fancy editing.
                                         Use of keypunch machines
decreased because many computer centers replaced cards by CRT
terminals.
                                         Interest in new computer
languages died. Most computer managers decided to stick with the
old classics (FORTRAN and COBOL), because switching to a
progressive language (such as PL/I) would require too much time
to retrain the programmers and rewrite all the old programs.
                                         Programmers made two
last-ditch attempts to improve ALGOL. The first attempt, called
ALGOL 68, was too complicated to win popular appeal. The second
attempt, called PASCAL, eventually gained more support.
                                         Maxicomputers were given
virtual core ___ disks that pretend to be core, in case you're
trying to run a program that's too large to fit into core.
                                         Memory chips got cheaper
and cheaper, until they were finally cheaper than core. Most
manufacturers replaced core by memory chips.
                                         In 1971, Intel began
shipping the first microprocessor (complete CPU on a chip). It
was called the 4004 and had a word of just 4 bits. In 1972, Intel
began shipping an improved version, the 8008, whose word had 8
bits. In 1973, Intel began shipping an even better version, the
8080.

            MICRO HISTORY
  In 1975, the first popular microcomputer was shipped. It was
called the Altair and was built by a company called MITS. It cost
just $395.
  It was just a box that contained a CPU and very little RAM:
just ¼ of a K!
  It included no printer, no disk, no tape, no ROM, no screen,
and not even a keyboard! The only way to communicate with the
computer was to throw 25 switches and watch 36 blinking lights.
  It didn't understand BASIC or any other high-level computer
language. To learn how to throw the switches and watch the
blinking lights, you had to take a course in ``machine
language''.
  You also had to take a course in electronics ___ because the
$395 got you just a kit that you had to assemble yourself by
using a soldering iron and reading electronics diagrams.
Moreover, when you finished building the kit, you noticed some of
the parts were missing or defective, so that you had to contact
MITS for new parts.
  That computer contained several empty slots to hold PC cards.
Eventually, many companies invented PC cards to put into those
slots. Those PC cards, which were expensive, let you insert extra
RAM and attach a printer, tape recorder, disk drives, TV, and
terminal (keyboard with either a screen or paper).
  Bill Gates invented a way to make the Altair handle BASIC. He
called his method Microsoft BASIC. He patterned it after DEC's
BASIC; but he included extra features that exploited the Altair's
ability to be ``personal'', and he eliminated features that would
require too much RAM.
  Gary Kildall invented a disk operating system that the Altair
could use. He called that operating system CP/M.
  Many companies built computers that imitated the Altair. Those
imitations became more popular than the Altair itself.
Eventually, the Altair's manufacturer (MITS) went out of
business.
  The computers that imitated the Altair were called S-100 bus
computers, because they each used a Standard cable containing 100
wires.
  In those days, the microcomputer industry was standardized.
Each popular microcomputer used Microsoft BASIC, CP/M, and the
S-100 bus. The microcomputer was just a box containing PC cards;
it had no keyboard, no screen, and no disk drive. A cable went
from the microcomputer to a terminal, which was priced
separately. Another cable went from the microcomputer to a disk
drive, which was also priced separately.
                                                Built-in keyboards
                                         In 1977, four companies
began selling microcomputers that had built-in keyboards, so you
didn't have to buy a terminal. Their computers became popular
immediately. The four companies were Processor Technology, Apple,
Commodore, and Radio Shack.
                                         Processor Technology's
computer was called the Sol 20, to honor Solomon Libes, an editor
of Popular Electronics. Apple's computer was called the Apple 2,
because it improved on the Apple 1, which had lacked a built-in
keyboard. Commodore's computer was called the Pet (inspired by
Pet Rocks). Radio Shack's computer was called the TRS-80, because
it was manufactured by Tandy's Radio Shack and contained a Z-80
CPU.
                                         For a fully assembled
computer, Processor Technology charged $1850, Apple charged $970,
Commodore charged $595 (but quickly raised the price to $795),
and Radio Shack charged $599 (but soon lowered the price to
$499).
                                         Notice that Commodore
and Radio Shack had the lowest prices. Also, the low prices from
Commodore and Radio Shack included a monitor, whereas the prices
from Processor Technology and Apple didn't. So Commodore and
Radio Shack were the real ``bargains''.
                                         In those days, ``the
lower the price, the more popular the computer''. The cheapest
and most popular computer was Radio Shack's. The second cheapest
and second most popular was Commodore's Pet. The third cheapest
and third most popular was the Apple 2. Processor Technology,
after a brief fling of popularity, went bankrupt. The most
expensive kind of microcomputer was the CP/M S-100 bus system,
which was the oldest kind and therefore had accumulated the
greatest quantity of business software.

                                                   Improvements
                                         In 1978 and 1979, the
three main companies (Apple, Commodore, and Radio Shack) improved
their computers.
                                         The improved Apple 2 was
called the Apple 2-plus. The improved Commodore Pet was called
the Commodore Business Machine (CBM). The improved Radio Shack
TRS-80 was called the TRS-80 model 2.
                                         After announcing the
Apple 2-plus, Apple Computer Company stopped selling the plain
Apple 2.
                                         Commodore continued
selling its old computer (the Pet) to customers who couldn't
afford the new version (the CBM), which cost more. Likewise,
Radio Shack continued selling its model 1 to customers who
couldn't afford the model 2.

                                             Texas Instruments & Atari
                                         In 1979, Texas
Instruments (TI) and Atari entered the microcomputer marketplace
and began selling low-priced computers.
                                         TI's microcomputer was
called the TI 99/4. Atari offered two microcomputers: the Atari
400 and the Atari 800.
                                         TI charged $1150. Atari
charged $1000 for the regular model (the Atari 800) and $550 for
the stripped-down model (the Atari 400).
  TI's price included a color monitor. Atari's prices did not
include a screen; you were to attach Atari's computers to your
home's TV.
  TI's computer was terrible, especially its keyboard. The Atari
800 computer was wonderful; reviewers were amazed at its
easy-to-use keyboard, easy-to-use built-in editor, gorgeous color
output on your TV, child-proofing (safe for little kids), and
dazzling games, all at a wonderfully low price! It was cheaper
than an Apple (whose price had by then risen to $1195) and yet
was much better than an Apple.
  From that description, you'd expect Atari 800 to become the
world's best-selling computer, and the TI 99/4 to become an
immediate flop. Indeed, that's what most computer experts hoped.
And so did the TI 99/4's product manager: when he saw what a mess
the TI 99/4 had become, he quit TI and went to work for Atari,
where he became the product manager for the Atari 400 & 800!
  But even though computer experts realized that TI's computer
was junk, TI decided to market it very aggressively, in several
ways. TI coaxed Milton Bradley and Scott Foresman to write lots
of programs for the 99/4. It paid researchers at MIT to make the
99/4 understand LOGO (a computer language used by young children
and very popular in elementary schools). It improved the keyboard
just enough so that people would stop laughing at it; the version
with the new keyboard was named the 99/4A. TI paid Bill Cosby to
praise the 99/4A and ran hundreds of TV ads showing Bill Cosby
saying ``wow''. TI dramatically slashed the $1150 price to $650,
then $150, and then finally to just $99.50! (To bring the price
that low, TI had to exclude the color monitor from the price;
instead, TI included a hookup to your home's color TV.)
  By contrast, Atari did hardly anything to market or further
improve the Atari 400 & 800. Instead, Atari concentrated on its
other products: the big Atari game machines (which you find in
video arcades) and the Atari VCS machine (which plays video games
on your home TV).
  The TI 99/4A therefore became more popular than the Atari 400 &
800 ___ even though the TI 99/4A was inherently worse.

     Sinclair, Osborne, backlash
  In 1980 and 1981, two important companies entered the
microcomputer marketplace: Timex Sinclair (1980) and Osborne
(1981).
  The first complete computer selling for less than $200 was
invented by a British chap named Clive Sinclair and manufactured
by Timex. The original version was called the ZX-80 (because it
was invented in 1980, contained a Z-80 CPU, and was claimed to be
``Xellent''); it sold for $199.95. In 1981, Clive Sinclair
invented an improved version, called the ZX-81. Later, he and
Timex invented further improvements, called the ZX Spectrum and
the Timex Sinclair 1000. When TI dropped the price of the TI
99/4A to $99.50, Timex retaliated by dropping the list price of
the Timex Sinclair 1000 to $49.95, so that the Timex Sinclair
1000 remained the cheapest complete computer.
  In April 1981, Adam Osborne began the Osborne Computer Corp.
and began selling the Osborne 1 computer, designed by Lee
Felsenstein (the inventor of Processor Technology's Sol 20
computer). The Osborne 1 computer included practically everything
a business executive needed: its $1795 price included a keyboard,
a monitor, a Z-80A CPU, a 64K RAM, two disk drives, CP/M,
Microsoft BASIC, a second version of BASIC, the Wordstar word
processor, and the Supercalc spreadsheet program. Moreover, it
was the world's
first portable business computer: the entire computer system
(including even the monitor and disk drives) was collapsible and
turned itself into an easy-to-carry attaché case. (Many years
later, Compaq copied Osborne's idea.)
                                         While Timex Sinclair and
Osborne were entering the marketplace, Radio Shack, Apple, and
Commodore were introducing new computers of their own. Let's
examine them. . . .
                                         In 1980, Radio Shack
began selling three new computers. The TRS-80 model 3 replaced
Radio Shack's cheapest computer (the model 1) and was almost as
good as Radio Shack's fanciest computer (the model 2). The TRS-80
Color Computer drew pictures in color and cost less than the
model 3. The TRS-80 Pocket Computer fit into your pocket, looked
like a pocket calculator, and was built for Radio Shack by Sharp
Electronics in Japan.
                                         In 1980, Apple began
selling the Apple 3. It was overpriced; and to make matters
worse, the first Apple 3's that rolled off the assembly line were
defective. Apple eventually lowered the price and fixed the
defects; but since the Apple 3 had gotten off to such a bad
start, computer consultants didn't trust it and told everybody to
avoid it.
                                         In 1981, Commodore began
selling the Vic-20, which drew pictures in color and cost less
than Radio Shack's Color Computer. In fact, the Vic-20 was the
first computer that drew pictures in color for less than $300.
                                         The Vic-20 originally
sold for $299.95. When TI lowered the price of the TI 99/4A to
$99.95, Commodore lowered the price of the Vic-20. At discount
department stores (such as K Mart, Toys R Us, and Child World),
you could buy the Vic-20 for just $85: it was still the cheapest
computer that could handle color. (The Timex Sinclair 1000 was
cheaper but handled only black-and-white.)
                                         Moreover, the Vic-20 had
standard Microsoft BASIC, whereas the Timex Sinclair 1000 and TI
99/4A did not; so the Vic-20 was the cheapest computer that had
standard Microsoft BASIC. It was the cheapest computer that was
pleasant to program.
                                         Also, the Vic-20 had a
nice keyboard, whereas the keyboards on the Timex Sinclair 1000
and TI 99/4A were pathetic.
                                         The Vic-20 became
immediately popular.

                                                      IBM PC
                                         On August 12, 1981, IBM
announced a new microcomputer, called the IBM Personal Computer
(or IBM PC).
                                         Although IBM had
previously invented other microcomputers (the IBM 5100 and the
IBM System 23 Datamaster), they'd been overpriced and nobody took
them seriously ___ not even IBM. The IBM Personal Computer was
IBM's first serious attempt to sell a microcomputer.
                                         The IBM Personal
Computer was a smashing success, because of its amazingly high
quality and amazingly low price. It became the standard against
which the rest of the microcomputer industry was judged.

               CYCLES
  Every 8 years, the country's mood about computers has changed.
After 8 years of dramatic revolution, we switched to 8 years of
subtle evolution, then back again.

            Pivotal years
  The pivotal years were 1943 (beginning the first revolution),
1951 (beginning the first period of evolution), 1959
(revolution), 1967 (evolution), 1975 (revolution), 1983
(evolution), and 1991 (revolution). Here are the details. . . .
  Revolution From 1943 to 1950, researchers at universities were
building the first true computers, which were big monsters. Each
was custom-built; no two were alike.
  Evolution In 1951, Sperry began selling the first mass-produced
computer: the UNIVAC I. Sperry built 46 of them. During the
8-year era from 1951 to 1958, computers gradually became smaller
and cheaper and acquired more software. That evolutionary era was
called the first generation.
  Revolution The next computer revolution began in 1959, when IBM
began selling the IBM 1401, the first IBM computer to use
transistors instead of vacuum tubes. During that eight-year
revolution from 1959 to 1966, computerists polished FORTRAN and
ALGOL (which had been begun earlier), invented 9 other major
computer languages (COBOL, BASIC, PL/I, LISP, SNOBOL, APL,
DYNAMO, GPSS, and RPG), and began developing FORTH and SPSS. They
created many amazing programs for artificial intelligence, such
as Weizenbaum's Eliza program, which made the computer imitate a
therapist. During that same eight-year period, IBM invented the
IBM 360: it was the first popular computer that used integrated
circuits, and all of IBM's modern mainframes are based on it.
  Evolution The years from 1967 to 1974 showed a gradual
evolution. Computer prices continued to drop and quality
continued to improve. DEC began selling PDP-10 and PDP-11
computers, which became the favorite computers among researchers
in universities.
  Revolution In 1975, MITS shipped the first popular
microcomputer, the Altair, which launched the personal computer
revolution. Soon Apple, Commodore, Tandy, and IBM began selling
microcomputers also. Programmers developed lots of useful, fun
software for them. The revolution climaxed at the end of 1982,
when many Americans bought microcomputers as Christmas presents.
  Evolution In January 1983, the cover of Time magazine declared
that the 1982 ``man of the year'' was the personal computer. But
consumers quickly tired of the personal-computer fad, chucked
their Commodore Vic and Timex Sinclair computers into the closet,
and shifted attention to less intellectual pursuits. Many
computer companies went bankrupt. In 1983, Lotus announced 1-2-3,
but that was the computer industry's last major successful new
product. After that, prices continued to fall and quality
gradually increased, but no dramatic breakthroughs occurred. The
computer industry became boring. During that time, if you were to
ask ``What fantastically great happened in the computer industry
during the past year?'' the answer was: ``Not much''.
                                         Revolution In 1991, the
computer industry became exciting again. Here's why. . . .
                                         Part of that excitement
came from revolutionary influences of the previous two years: in
1989 & 1990 the Berlin Wall fell, the Cold War ended, a new
decade began, Microsoft finally invented a version of Windows
that worked well (version 3.0), and Apple invented a color Mac
that was affordable (the LC). In 1991, Microsoft put the
finishing touches on Windows (version 3.1) and DOS (version 5).
                                         In 1991 and 1992, a
series of price wars made the cost of computers drop 45% per year
instead of the customary 30%. Those lower prices made people
spend more money on computers, because the ridiculously low
prices for fancy stuff encouraged people to buy fancier
computers: 486 instead of 286, Super VGA instead of plain VGA, 8M
RAM instead of 1M, 200M hard drives instead of 40M.
                                         The sudden popularity of
Windows whetted the public's hunger for those muscle machines,
since Windows requires lots of muscle to run well. That growing
American muscle (bigger and bigger!) in turn made Windows
practical enough to become desirable. All big software companies
hastily converted their DOS and Mac software to Windows.
                                         The challenge of doing
that conversion well forced them to rethink the twin questions of
software wisdom: ``What makes software easy to use?'' and ``What
kinds of software power do users want?'' Many creative solutions
were invented to those questions.
                                         During the 1992
Christmas season, fast CD-ROM drives finally became cheap enough
to create a mass market: many American bought them, and CD-ROMs
became the new standard way to distribute encyclopedias,
directories, other major reference works, and software libraries
(full of fonts and shareware). The attention given to CD-ROMs
made customers think about the importance of sound, and many
customers bought sound cards such as the Sound Blaster.
                                         I'd tell you more about
this computer revolution, but I'm stuck in the middle of it now
and must get back to my battle station.
                                         When the revolution
ends, we historians will try to summarize it. With the advantage
of hindsight, we'll all sit back in our easy chairs, smoke our
pipe dreams, wax eloquent about our war stories, and gigglishly
play Monday-morning quarterback, which is so much funnier than
calling the shots while the game's in progress.
        Presidential politics
  The 8-year computer cycle coincides with the American cycle of
switching political parties. After years of Roosevelt & Truman,
the presidential election of 1952 ushered in eight years of a
Republican (Eisenhower); 1960 brought eight years of Democrats
(Kennedy & Johnson); 1968, eight years of Republicans (Nixon &
Ford).
  1976 began another 16-year experience of ``Democrat followed by
Republicans''; but alas, the Democrat (Carter) got just 4 of
those years, and the Republicans (Reagan and Bush) got the
remaining 12. (Carter got just 4 of those years instead of 8
because he lost face in the middle of the Iran hostage crisis,
oil crisis, and recession.)
  1992 began another experience of ``Democrat followed by
Republicans''. The Democrat was Clinton.
  I wonder who will come after Clinton. If you're reading this
book long after Clinton has come and gone, please enter your time
machine, go through a time warp, come back to my time, and tell
me who Clinton's successor will be. I'm dying to know. I'm also
curious how you future folks will judge his administration, since
one of my classmates is in his cabinet.
  When Americans love liberals and revolution, they vote for
Democrats; when Americans prefer a more conservative evolution,
they vote for Republicans. As historical analyst Krigsman so
neatly codifies it, ``An excitable mood in the country causes a
computer revolution, and the next year the Democrats take
power.''